The past year brought notable economic progress, with declining inflation, lower interest rates, and a robust stock market rally. However, as the U.S. transitions to a new administration and continues to navigate post-pandemic recovery, what financial trends might emerge in 2025? Here's a closer look at what to expect in mortgages, investments, banking, and credit cards.
Mortgages
Earlier predictions suggested a significant drop in mortgage rates throughout 2025. However, growing uncertainty around how markets will respond to the new administration has led experts from institutions like Zillow and Fannie Mae to anticipate rates remaining above 6% for the year.
Housing Inventory and Prices
Demand for housing still significantly outpaces supply. While approximately 5.8 million new homes were constructed in the past four years, consumer demand has kept pace, leaving the housing market under pressure.
“This housing deficit took over a decade to develop, and it will likely take just as long to resolve,” notes Rob Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders.
The imbalance continues to favor sellers, pushing home prices higher. While this is beneficial for homeowners building equity, it presents challenges for prospective buyers looking for affordable options.
Investments
The investment landscape for 2025 presents a mix of opportunities and risks. Favorable factors like lower interest rates and potential corporate tax cuts could drive earnings growth, while elevated stock valuations may create some volatility.
S&P 500 Outlook
The S&P 500 is expected to see moderate gains in 2025, supported by macroeconomic improvements and advancements in artificial intelligence. However, high valuations remain a concern, as they can amplify market swings if earnings growth underperforms expectations.
Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Smaller companies may outperform larger counterparts in 2025 due to their heightened sensitivity to interest rate reductions and potential tax relief. Many small-cap firms rely on variable-rate debt, which benefits more quickly from lower rates, unlike the fixed-rate obligations typically held by larger corporations.
Tax cuts could also disproportionately benefit smaller companies, as they tend to derive a higher percentage of their revenue domestically, unlike globally diversified large-cap firms.
Banking
In the banking sector, the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy is likely to shape consumer outcomes.
“We anticipate gradual interest rate reductions in 2025, with 25 basis-point cuts in the first two quarters before pausing mid-year,” says Sophia Kearney-Lederman, Senior Economist at FHN Financial.
The Fed’s decisions will hinge on inflation trends and labor market conditions. A modest rise in inflation, combined with lower unemployment rates due to adjusted immigration policies, could prompt the Fed to hold off on additional rate cuts in the latter half of the year.
If rates decline as projected, yields on savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs may also drop, reducing returns for depositors.
Credit Cards
The Federal Reserve's easing of rates has already led to slight reductions in credit card interest rates, and further rate cuts in 2025 could continue this trend.
However, don’t expect dramatic changes to your APR. Despite potential reductions in the Fed’s target range, average credit card interest rates remain high, exceeding 21%. While lower rates may help, prioritizing debt repayment remains essential to avoid accumulating additional interest costs.
As we step into 2025, understanding these financial trends can help you better navigate the year ahead and make informed decisions to strengthen your personal finances.